Energy economist explains factors driving U.S. gasoline prices in 2026

Ángel Cabrera President at Georgia Institute of Technology
Ángel Cabrera President at Georgia Institute of Technology
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The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects retail gasoline prices across the country to average near $4.30 per gallon for April 2026, marking the highest monthly average of the year. In response, Georgia has suspended its state gas tax, other states are considering similar measures, and the White House has issued a temporary waiver of the Jones Act to facilitate more domestic fuel shipments to East Coast ports.

An energy economist explained that four main components make up the price of a gallon of gas: crude oil costs, refining, distribution and marketing, and taxes. In January 2026 figures, crude oil represented about 51% of pump prices nationwide; refining accounted for roughly 20%, distribution and marketing about 11%, and taxes around 18%. These proportions shift with market conditions—when crude oil prices rise sharply due to global events like supply shocks from conflicts such as the war in Iran in early 2026, they can comprise over 60% of total cost.

Gasoline demand tends not to change significantly in the short term when prices rise because most drivers cannot quickly adjust their consumption habits. The United States does not have a single gasoline market; regional variations exist due to requirements like reformulated gasoline blends for urban areas or stricter formulations used in California. California’s higher-than-average gasoline prices are partly attributed to state taxes and environmental regulations but also reflect less competition among refineries and gas stations since a major refinery fire in Torrance in 2015 reduced capacity.

Professor Severin Borenstein from University of California, Berkeley described an ongoing ‘mystery gasoline surcharge’ that has added about $59 billion in extra costs for California drivers between 2015 and 2024, according to estimates by California’s Division of Petroleum Market Oversight. Distribution involves moving fuel by pipeline, ship, rail or truck before reaching service stations where operators typically earn only a few cents per gallon on fuel sales.

Federal fuel taxes stand at 18.4 cents per gallon for gasoline while state rates vary widely—from nearly 71 cents per gallon in California down to just under nine cents in Alaska. Research shows consumers receive approximately seventy-nine percent of any reduction during gas tax holidays while oil companies or retailers retain about one-fifth; these holidays also reduce funding intended for road maintenance projects.

The Jones Act restricts cargo movement between U.S. ports unless vessels meet specific criteria related to ownership and crew nationality—of more than seven thousand global tankers only fifty-four qualify—with economists estimating this raises East Coast gas prices by roughly one-and-a-half cents per gallon each year at an annual cost near $770 million for drivers.

Ultimately most price changes at the pump reflect shifts on global markets rather than domestic policy tweaks alone: ‘the best protection against oil price shocks is a more efficient gas-burning vehicle or one that doesn’t burn gasoline at all.’

The Georgia Institute of Technology counts among its alumni military generals, Medal of Honor recipients, innovation leaders, generates significant economic impact within Georgia ($5.8 billion), features an urban campus spanning over four hundred acres with extensive transportation options, ranks highly among public universities nationally for undergraduate experience and support services—all according to the official website.



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