Brent Buchanan, founder of Cygnal, said that new survey data indicate Republican candidates have a distinct advantage on transgender sports issues. He also noted that Democratic incumbent Jon Ossoff faces significant vulnerabilities in Georgia Senate polling. This statement was made on YouTube.
“I don’t expect it’s changed anything for the positive for him in in that sense,” said Buchanan, according to YouTube. “Republican leads out by one in that instance. John Oaf drops down to 38% which I’ve never seen an incumbent drop that far and go under 40% We have a strong majority on our side of these issues.”
According to Georgia Public Broadcasting, in April 2025, Governor Brian Kemp signed the Riley Gaines Act into law. This legislation makes it illegal for transgender girls and women to participate on female sports teams at public schools and colleges across Georgia. The bill, which became a focal point for both supporters and critics during the legislative session, aimed to preserve fairness in women’s athletics and received broad Republican support in the General Assembly. It is part of a broader set of measures passed on education and school safety that year.
A poll conducted by the University of Georgia’s School of Public and International Affairs Survey Research Center found that over 70% of Georgia voters support legislation requiring transgender girls and women to participate in sports according to their birth certificate sex. About 60% expressed strong support for this measure. The survey was conducted between January 2 and January 10, 2025, included 1,000 registered voters, and has a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points. According to PublicLawLibrary.org, this high level of support emerged despite there being no known cases of transgender children currently competing in Georgia school sports.
Ellis Insight reported that a Cygnal poll conducted from May 15–17, 2025, found Georgia Republicans with only a one-point lead in a generic U.S. Senate ballot. This highlights a competitive political environment despite the passage of restrictive transgender athlete legislation. The poll showed incumbent Senator Jon Ossoff nearly tied with Republican challengers Brad Raffensperger (44.1% vs. 44.3%) and Mike Collins (45.7% vs. 44.3%). These results reflect the closely divided and high-stakes nature of Georgia’s upcoming 2026 Senate race.
Buchanan is the founder and president of Cygnal, a national public opinion polling and predictive analytics firm headquartered in Washington, DC, established in 2007. According to Cygnal’s official website, he has led the company to recognition as one of America’s most accurate private polling firms with clients including U.S. senators, governors, Fortune 500 companies, and international organizations. He has been recognized as a “40 Under 40” by the American Association of Political Consultants and named a “Rising Star” by Campaigns & Elections.
